Battle for the Atlantic Division

With the recent good play by the Raptors and the struggle for the Celtics, there have been talks among Raptor Nation that the Toronto Raptors could take the Atlantic Division.

Before we get into whether this is possible or not, we should look at what has happened so far. The Raptors has a 28-23 record, 5 games back of the Celtics which has a 32-17 record. So base on winning percentage, the Raptors would be a 45 win team while the Celtics would win 53 games (On ESPN, John Hollinger has a playoff Odds page, and it predicted that the Raptors will win 45 games and the Celtics winning 51 games).

Lots of Raptor fans will point out that their team has played a lot better since Dec 4th. They are correct in a way, so I have decide to look at both teams record from December 4th.

Celtics: 17-12
Raptors: 21-10

Basically, the Raptors are winning 67% of their games while the Celtics winning 58%. So if these numbers are sustainable, the Raptors will end up winning 49 games and the Celtics 50 games.

We will look at if it’s possible for the Raptors to win 67% of their remaining games a little later. But first we should look at the factors that could have an effect on the race.

1) Schedule.
Celtics, 33 games left. 16 of the road. Will face top 6 teams (Dal, LAL, Cle, Orl, Atl, Den) 6 times. Have 8 back-to-back games.
Raptors. 31 games left. 15 games on the road. Will face the top 6 teams (sub BOS to Dal) 6 times as well. 9 back to back games left.

On the surface, it looks like it’s pretty even. But when you look closer, the Celtics has a harder schedule. They have 17 games in March, which is quite a bit for an old team. They are going on a West Coast trip playing Portland, Lakers and Denver. Plus they still have to play Dallas and Utah on the road.

The Raptors will also have a difficult month in March. But their west coast trip isn’t as difficult, they will face the Lakers, Portland, Sacramento and Golden States. And that’s the most difficult stretch for them.

2) Trades. The trade deadline is Feb 18. I am pretty sure the Celtics will make a move to improve their roster. It’s a ‘Win-Now’ team that isn’t winning right now. Danny Ainge has enough trade chips to make things happen, starting with Ray Allen and his expiring contract. In fact, the Celtics do have a lot of expiring contracts including Tony Allen and Eddie House.

As for the Raptors, I don’t see them making major moves at the deadline. I could see them tweak the roster a little bit, but I don’t see them making a big change. The coaching staff seems to be very happy with the roster, and the players look happy as well.

Now I have no idea how a trade would affect a team. Things may look good on paper, but a complete disaster on the court. However, if either team can get a guy that fits in perfectly with the team, then things could get interesting.

3) Injuries. Injuries can happen at anytime, however the Celtics do have a disadvantage of having aging players who are not 100% health wise. Garnett is not looking all that good, Pierce is playing on one foot. The Raptors do have a healthier roster, as they really don’t have any major injuries. So they are lucky in this aspect, but the luck can turn at any moment.

- Can the Raptors continue to win 67% of their remaining games?

I really don’t think so. That’s a very difficult thing to do, and when you look at how many back to back games left in their schedule, and knowing their history, it’s pretty much mission impossible. In order to sustain their winning ways, they would have to:

1) play better defense, especially with the first 3 quarters.
2) No dropoff with their offensive production.
3) No major injuries.

#1 is the toughest one. This team still hasn’t shown they can play solid defense for 48 minutes. But in order to win more than 2/3 of the remaining games, this is the most necessary.

- Can the Celtics continue to win 58% of their games?

I have no idea. Two years ago or even last year, I would have said yes. But the Celtics are really laboring right now, and seriously needs someone to give them a spark. If the Celtics go .500 the rest of the way, then they will win 47 games. The Raptors would need to need to go 20-11 the rest of the way to claim the division. I really don’t see the Celtics doing worse than .500 for the next 33 games though.

Summary: Base on the above, it will be an uphill battle for the Raptors to win the division. Also the Raptors have already lost 3 games to the Celtics, thus losing the season series, and they have only 1 head to head match up against the Celtics left. So there is very little margin for error. Each loss will make it that much harder for the Raptors to win the division. Even if the Raptors win 70% of their remaining games, the Celtics will still be the favorite to win the division. So the Raptors really need some luck here.

Post game: Sacramento Kings vs Toronto Raptors

Superbowl Sunday game against an opponent that has a record of 16-33, losing of 5 straight games and with only 3 row wins. Add to that, they are a West Coast team, so it should be 9 o’clock for them. So it should be a easy win for a Raptors right?

Nope. No such thing. For three and a half quarters, the Kings battled and at times, looked like a team that can win their 4th road game. The Raptors defense (or lack thereof) was once again horrific. The biggest weakness of the defense (one of many), is the transition D. They allowed the Kings to get one easy basket after another.

So in the middle of the fourth quarter, the Raptors started to play good defense. They were contesting shots, Tyreke Evans showed his inexperience, and forced some shots. Again, you got to wonder why the Raptors couldn’t do this for 4 quarters.

Antoine Wright has another big game. Shooting 6/7 from the field, 16/5/4. Hitting some big shots when the team need it. His defense on Evans was excellent down the stretch. Not sure if he can continue with this hot shooting streak, but it’s good to watch. (Apparently he has been working on his jump shot for quite a while now. So I am glad to see the hard work in paying off)

This is my first chance to watch the Kings this season. I like some of the pieces they have, Evans is a better version of Larry Hughes. Casspi did not have a good game, but he certainly has some talent. They need to move Martin though, he had a horrible game. I know his stats line looks ok, but he took some very questionable shots, and didn’t play any defense. They could use a bigger presence in the low post as well. Neither Hawes nor Thompson can stop the Raptors’ front court. Bosh has a monster game 36/11/5, and Bargnani with 22/8/3. A lot of teams also had success on Sacramento’s bigs.

Keys to the Win:

- Front Court scoring. 58 points between Bargnani and Bosh. The Kings didn’t any one who could put up some resistance.

- Passing. 28 assists. Very unselfish play, the offense is just about the best in the NBA right now. Great to watch.

- Stops in the fourth quarter. I have a feeling that the Raptors didn’t take the Kings seriously for 3 and a half quarters, but then realize that the Kings could win. They started playing defense. Wright’s defense was very good, he contested shots and shut down Tyreke Evans.

One more game before the all-star break. The 76ers are playing much better, so I am hoping they can start playing defense from the first quarter on.

28-23

Post Game: New Jersey Nets vs Toronto Raptors

TGIN. Thank God It’s Nets.

With three regulars out, and a fourth one playing with a flu (Jack), the Raptors could use all the help they can get to win this one. And Christmas came early, as the Nets strolled into town.

The Raptors started out well, but the offense looked stagnant in the second quarter, Belinelli was back to his inconsistent self again and Amir Johnson was hampered by foul troubles.

Basically, the game was very close until the last 2 minutes of the third quarter, where the Raptors started to take control and the Nets self-destruct.

The Nets in the meantime could become the worst team in history. I like Brook Lopez’s offensive game, but I didn’t realize he is such a bad defender. He wasn’t even trying half the time. The rest of the team, just seem to be confused on most offensive sets. Nice to see Hump back, and he definitely gave the Nets a lift. I would start him ahead of Yi, but that’s just me.

Keys to the Win:

- Balance Scoring. Everyone in the starting lineup scored double figures in the game. Bosh and Bargnani had a tough shooting game for the most part, but the other guys like Wright and Weems stepped up. Not to mention a gutsy effort by Jarrett Jack, who wasn’t 100%, but played like a warrior tonight.

- 3 point shot. Raptors shot 10/19 from downtown. They needed those early to stay close.

- It’s the Nets. They are a terrible team. They folded like a cheap suitcase in the fourth quarter. Terrible spacing, careless turnovers, mind boggling shot selection.

Well the Raptors will get a much needed 4 days off until the next game. Hopefully, two or all of the injured players will be ready for Sunday’s game. My hunch is that Turk and DeRozan will play, but Calderon won’t.

27-23

Post Game: Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors (Part Deux)

All good things do come to an end, but bad news always come in twos.

The Raptors didn’t look like the team that went 10-5 in January. Instead, they looked more like the team earlier in the season, losing 130-115 to the Pacers.

It’s a horrible night for the Raptors on defense, they couldn’t make any stops especially in the 2nd half. The Pacers basically got either a field goal or a free throw attempt every possession in the latter half of the game. The bad habits they picked up earlier came back to bite them.

Of course, Jose’s injury just the icing on the cake of a horrendous night. Jose was playing well, he and Amir Johnson continued to have great chemistry together. Man, this hurts.

Give the Pacers credit, they attacked instead of settling jump shots like most nights. Maybe they should look into canning Jim O’Brien. They put Granger back into his natural spot at SF, and instead of trying to hit the long range shots, they took their time and attacked the Raptors. From the first possession of the game onwards, they never relented.

Keys to the Loss:

- Can’t give up 130 points and expect a win. Especially on the road. The defense is just horrendous tonight. This is the worst I have seen Jack played in quite some time.

- Turnovers. Instead of slowing things down on offense, they rushed. 16 turnovers tonight. It has been an issue for the last couple of games as well. They got to clean that up.

- Fouls. I thought they were too aggressive near the end of the third quarter, getting Pacers to the line for a bunch for free throws. And they made 33-35 tonight.

The Nets are in town tomorrow, which should be an easy win. But you don’t play the game on paper, the team’s defense better showed up tomorrow night and hopefully some healthy bodies too.

26-23

Monthly Summary: January

Raptors summary: January

Team Record: 10-5
Road Record: 4-4
Home Record 6-1

Winning two-thirds of the games is always impressive. The Raptors did it in style. They scored 100 points in 14 straight games, the only time they scored less than 100 points was the first game of the month against Boston.

Best Win: Lakers. My friend said this is the best regular season game since the Vince Carter era.

Worst game: January 2 against Boston. Though the road loss to Indiana is quite painful too, since they had a 23 point lead. I go with the Boston game because the Celtics were missing 3 starters to their lineup.

Best player of the month: CB4. Really, it’s no contest. Bosh is averaging 24.7 points 11.7 boards while shooting 53% from the field. He has been averaging over 20 points and 10 boards each month.

Best player (other than Bosh) of the month: I was going to go with Bargnani, who did have a good January (18.2 points 6.7 boards, 1.8 blocks) despite a couple of setbacks. But Jarrett Jack got my vote here. Did anyone look at his January numbers? It’s insane. He shot 54% from the field, 40% from the 3 point line, averaging 12.7 points and 4.6 assists in 29.5 minutes. Jack did win some games for the Raptors with his performance. His numbers as a starter: 12.6 points, 5.3 assists 3.1 rebounds, 53.5% FG, 42.9% 3pt. He is the best acquisition by Colangelo in the off-season.

Worst player of the month: Ball. This one is easy. Hedo shot 33.6% from the field, and was pretty horrible in January.

Why 10-5? The offense. It’s true that they have improved their defense (they did regress a little in the last couple of games), but it’s their offense that’s running the show right now. Currently the Raptors are ranked 2nd in the league in terms of offensive efficiency, behind Phoenix (oddly enough, the Suns are ranked 29th in defense and the Raptors rank dead last in that category). They have proven that they can score against any team. If they have an average defense, they would be a contender. At times, they do look like a pretty darn good team. For the most part, most players had a real good month in January. The second unit led by Calderon has been a spark in almost every game.

Looking ahead: The Raptors’ schedule is pretty favorable in Feb. If they can win tomorrow’s game, they have a chance at breaking the franchise most wins in a row at 9. Tomorrow’s game could be tough since it’s the second of a home and home, they will be on the road and they will be playing without Turkoglu + DeRozan. Guys like Bargnani, Calderon, and Belinelli has to step up. Anyway, the Raptors won’t face a winning team until Feb 17 vs the Grizzlies. Portland and Cleveland will be tough but the Raptors will face them in the ACC.

4th place: It’s nice to have a goal and all, but I just don’t see how they could get there. In my estimation, the fourth place team will probably have 53 wins or so. The Raptors would need a 27-7 record to get there. Mission improbable.

Trade Deadline: Feb 18 will be the trade deadline. I expect Colangelo to make one more move. I am not sure if it’s a big move, but I am sure he will try to do something. We will see if I am correct with this prediction or not.

Post Game: Indiana Pacers vs Toronto Raptors

Hedo Turkoglu left the game playing only 1 minute because of an injury.

The Raptors turn the ball over 14 times.

The Raptors made only 10 of 16 from the FT line.

And the Raptors still manage to score 117 Points in the game. This should tell you a lot about the offense and well, the Indiana defense.

The Pacers started a small lineup against the Raptors, with Granger playing as a PF. The upside is that they create a lot issues for the Raptor defense. Of course, the downside is that the Raptors dominated inside. Granger spent most of the game in foul trouble, and never got into a grove. So basically, by going small, the Pacers neutralize their best offensive weapon. Way to go.

Huge game from Bosh, taking advantage of the small lineup. 26 points 15 boards and 7 assists, only 1 turnover. This is MVP numbers. Amir Johnson had another strong game, 12 points and 8 boards, only 1 foul. So he got to finish the game instead of Bargnani. Antoine Wright stepped in for Turkoglu and had another good shooting game, his 3rd in a row.

The Pacers did come back from a 16 point deficit to tie the game at 96-96. They shoot a lot of 3s and have a lot of good shooters. Luther Head had some of the worst shot selection I have seen, but he’s also very streaky. He was hitting his shot tonight. The Pacers though, can’t play D, the Raptors can get any shot they wanted.

Keys to the win:

- Great ball movement. The Raptors had 32 assists, and ended up shooting over 60% from the field.

- Defense in the fourth. The Pacers tied the game 96-96 with 7:59 left in the game but could only score 6 points after that.

- Balance scoring. Even with big game for Bosh, 6 other Raptors scored with double figures.

This is the first half of the home and home series, the second half will be in Indiana. Last time the Raptors was there, the Pacers coming back from a 23 point deficit for the win. So the Raptors should have some motivation to win there.

5 wins in a row, let’s hope for 6.

26-22. Ball!

Post game: NY Knicks vs Toronto Raptors

Due to Go train issue, I only get to see the 2nd half.

You know the Raptors struggled mightily in back to back games. So it’s no surprise they played badly in the first quarter. I didin’t see this, but I know about the turnovers and such.

They really need to clean up their act on the turnovers though. 21 turnovers, it’s lucky they won the game. Also I don’t think it’s a good idea to let the opponent have a double digit lead each time.

Luckily Turkoglu woke up and had a huge game for the Raptors. 26 pts and 11 boards with only 1 turnover. He was aggressive tonight, had a couple of big dunks, generally playing like he’s 6′10. This is big because Bargnani disappeared tonight. It’s nothing new with Il Mago, his performance on a back to back has not been good. Coming into this game he shoots 40% from the field and only have 13 points and 6 boards. You got to wonder if his back has something to do with it.

Keys to the win:

- No quit. Again they could have played alot better, but they didn’t quit when they were down in the first quarter.

- The bench. Again the 2nd unit did a solid job getting the Raptors back in the game.

The Raps won’t play till Sunday, that should give them some time to work on certain things (ie: turnovers).

25-22

Post game: Miami Heat vs Toronto Raptors

Battle of the 5th spot. To me that’s kind of a non-story. It’s clear there are 4 really good teams in the Eastern Conference and they are way ahead of everyone else. So basically, whoever gets spot 5-8 will have a tough time winning a series, especially without home court advantage.

But I digress…

It’s an important to note however, that this is the Raptors are now 2 games over .500, and that’s a level they have never been at before.

The team was off to a slow start perhaps because they were a little too anxious. The Heat played good defense, and the Raptors was rushing on offense. Turning the ball 7 times in the first quarter, and the Heat made them pay.

However, it’s Toronto’s game the rest of the way. They won every quarter after that. And Bosh despite having a tough time at the free throw line finished the game with 24 pts 18 boards and 4 assists.

It didn’t help the Heat that they were without Michael Beasley for most of the game with a knee injury. Beasley is a player who can create his own shots, which is a rarity on that team. As a result, Wade has to play the entire 2nd half, which would explain his lack of scoring in the 4th quarter. The Raptors cheated to help on Wade a lot and force the other Heat to beat them. And Antoine Wright did a good job in the 2nd half defending one of the best player in the game.

Of course, the Heat just couldn’t stop the Raptors. Miami ranked 12th on defense, but they didn’t look good on D tonight.

Keys to the win:

- The Bench. The starters struggled in the first quarter, the bench made some big plays and getting the points back. Leading the way is Amir Johnson with 11 points (perfect night), Belinelli has another solid game also with 11 points (he reminds me of Ginobilli with his body control; he doesn’t have the explosiveness that Manu has, but Beli can twitch his body to avoid charges as well as anyone). Calderon has 7 assists and Wright is very solid with 9 points and playing good D on Wade.

- The two bigs. Bargnani with 27 points, scoring in a number of ways. Bosh with a huge double double as mentioned above.

- Good game plan on Wade in the 2nd half. No doubt the injury to Beasely helps the Raptors. They dare the other Heat to score and they can’t. Rafer Alston was 4-16 (Rafer should not take 16 shots), QRich was 2-7. Haslem is the only guy who did well, but he isn’t a guy who can create his own shots consistently. O’Neal has 15 points at the half, but only 7 after that. At times, the Miami offense was stagnant, especially when Wade wasn’t touching the ball.

Another game tomorrow, I am not sure we will will win this one though. It’s a back to back so you know the story already and the Knicks will probably play better to start the game, which will make it tougher. Surely, the Knicks has a lot to prove after the Dallas 50 points Massacre on Sunday. Let’s hope I am wrong and the Raps can win another on in NY.

24-22

The incredible story of the Raptors offense

When most people talked about the Raptors, they talked about the horrible defense, they even break it down to why it’s so bad, but they overlooked that the Raptors also has a pretty darn good offense. You would think someone would try to do an analysis on why that’s the case. After all, the Raptors ranked 22nd in offensive efficiency last season and right now they are 4th in the league. That’s an 18 spot jump, which is pretty rare thing to see in less than a year.

So what has happened?

To an outsider or someone who doesn’t watch the Raptors play, they would look at the roster and think that the Raptors is a jump shooting team. We do have a lot of good shooters, with Calderon, Bargnani, Turkoglu, Bellinelli, Bosh (an excellent mid range shooter) and etc. But that assumption wouldn’t be accurate; while the Raptors is the fifth best team in terms of 3 points percentage, they don’t attempt a lot of 3s. They are 15th in the league in terms of 3 point attempts per game at 17.7. The Orlando Magic leads the league with 28.8 3 point attempts per game.

The answer is something no one is talking about. The Raptors attack the paint and get to the free throw line. Right now, they are the 2nd best team in the league of getting to the charity stripe. Yes, this is the same Raptor team that had the 2nd worst free throw attempts per game a couple of years ago.

It all starts with Chris Bosh who makes his living at the free throw line. He averages 9 FT attempts per game, but unlike previous years, other Raptors help out. DeMar DeRozan isn’t shy of getting hit, and Jarrett Jack’s strength helps him get to the paint and draw fouls. The most surprising of all is Marco Belinelli, who most people think is a jump shooter, but he is so much more aggressive than I expected. The Laker game is a great example, the Raptors attempted 26 free throws, and Bosh didn’t have an attempt.

Another remarkable thing about this is, that the Raptors remain one of the top teams in terms of taking care of the ball. They are ranked 7th in turnover ratio according to Knickblogger.net. So they manage to draw fouls without turning the ball over, that’s a very tough thing to do. That’s because we have very good ball-handlers, from Jack, Belinelli, Turkoglu, Calderon, Bosh (an above average ballhandler for a PF) and Bargnani (an above average ball handler for a C).

Add to that, Bosh is having a monster year on offense. His added strength allows him to grab more offensive boards and play closer to the rim. According to NBA Hotspots, Bosh attempted 500 FGA around the immediate basket area last season, and this season he has already attempted 376 times while shooting at a higher percentage (57% 08-09, 59% 09-10), and there are almost half a season left.

One last note: This is from Kevin Pelton at Basketball Prospectus:

http://www.basketballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=879

In paying tribute to Steve Nash earlier this season, I referenced hoopnumbers.com’s breakdown of adjusted plus-minus into the Four Factors at both ends of the floor. Of the top 13 players in adjusted impact on their team’s effective field-goal percentage, 11 were All-Stars last year. The 12th is Deron Williams, and I think it’s safe to say he belongs in the All-Star category despite the fact that a logjam of point guards in the West has kept him from actually making the team. The last player? Turkoglu, who ranked seventh by increasing his team’s eFG% by 1.34 percent while on the floor over the last three seasons when accounting for the quality of his teammates.

What I’m starting to suspect is there is something about how Turkoglu helps an offense that is not picked up by his individual stats. Whether it is because of his versatility, or his ability to run the pick-and-roll, he makes his teammates more efficient without generating a ton of assists or scoring all that efficiently (or that often) himself.

So maybe Hedo is doing something right even if the stats can’t prove it…

In the end, the story of the Raptors offense should get almost as much attention as its horrific (but improving) defense. I hope people do realize that maybe Jay Triano is doing something right.

Bosh vs Bynum, DeRozan and Turkoglu heroics

The most interesting subplot about yesterday’s game is the Andrew Bynum vs Chris Bosh matchup. Bosh didn’t guard Bynum much, but Bynum did guard Bosh. I thought he did a pretty good job for the most part. He didn’t foul Bosh (in fact Bosh never went to the FT line all game, a true rarity), it took 17 shots for Bosh to score 18 points, so that’s as good as the Lakers would have hope for in this match up. Bynum has great size and has soft touch around the basket. He also has a good back to the basket game and soft hands. While Gasol is more craftier with his post game, Bynum definitely has an edge in terms of him being stronger. And the most important thing? He is only 22 and still learning.

The Bosh for Bynum trade rumor is just that, a rumor. I really don’t see it happening. Colangelo is not going to move Bosh before the trade deadline unless he asked for a trade. And why would the Lakers give up a 22 year old center (who can be the best center in the league) for possibly 3 months of Bosh. It’s not like the Lakers can’t win a championship with this lineup, why take a chance?

However I can see this trade being made in the off-season, if the Lakers couldn’t win the championship with Bynum and decide to do a sign and trade with Toronto for Chris Bosh. It would make more sense for both teams, the Lakers would know they have a long term service with Bosh while Toronto would do this trade if Bosh is leaving, and getting them a young center.

DeMar’s rough day and his future

Let’s just be blunt about it, Kobe schooled DeRozan last night.

It’s not pretty to watch, at times I thought Triano must be a masochist to have DeRozan guarding Kobe Bryant. Maybe it will benefit the rookie eventually, but I was cursing at Triano for putting a rookie in this position.

If you forget about last night, DeRozan has been playing decent basketball. He tries hard, he is getting more confident with his jumper, he stands his ground on defense for the most part. He reminds me a lot of Josh Howard in a couple of aspect. Both are incredibly athletic, and Howard is more of a midrange shooter, which is what DeRozan is. I doubt DeRozan will become an ace ball-handler, but Howard isn’t exact a great one either.

If you look at their freshman stats in college, they are very similar. Howard did come out of college after his senior season, so he came out with more seasoning and poise.

DeRozan is still trying to figure what he is doing a lot of times. He was driving in the lane but didn’t know what he’s going to do when he saw help coming. This is the part of game DeRozan could improve, passing the ball. When he drives, he is looking to score 99 times out of 100.

But DeRozan’s future maybe at SF like Howard, and it might fit him better. He has a lot of weakness in his game as a SG (Jump shot range, handles, passing) but those weaknesses wouldn’t be as severe if he plays SF. He has the length and athletic ability to play SF, and he would play closer to the basket (in theory), and his issues wouldn’t be as glaring.

Turkoglu heroics.

In a funny way, his shooting slump may have won the game for the Raptors last night.

If you watched the entire game, you would see Turkoglu was passing up shots. There were moments where he had an open look, but he refused to shoot it. In fact, he has only attempted 6 FG last night, you could see clearly he doesn’t have any confidence in his jumper.

When he got the ball in the dying seconds of the game, I was hoping he wouldn’t try to shoot his trademark step-back three. If he was more confident, he would have. Instead, he drove to the basket, draw the foul and make the free throws. In other words, the right play.