Game Preview: Orlando Magic vs Toronto Raptors

Didn’t see the game yesterday, but needless to say, it’s disappointing to see them losing to Memphis. Looks like defense is an issue (surprise). They always seem to have problems playing there, no matter the quality of the team.

I will be in ACC for tomorrow’s game. Here is a quick preview.

Orlando Projected starting 5:

PG: Jameer Nelson
SG: Vince Carter
SF: Michael Pietrus
PF: Ryan Anderson
C: Dwight Howard

Note: Vince Carter turn his ankle last night and might not play. He seems to be fine afterward, so he could show up and play in front of his fans who just adore him. If not, JJ Redick will start. Ryan Anderson is having a good start to the season, filling in for Rashard Lewis.

Raptor Projected Starting 5:

PG: Jose Calderon
SG: DeMar DeRozan
SF: Hedo Turkoglu
PF: Chris Bosh
C: Andrea Bargnani

Things to look at:

– If Vince Carter plays tomorrow, you will see plenty of Antoine Wright. Wright and Carter were teammates in NJ, and Wright should be familiar with Carter’s moves and tendency.

– In previous two meetings, the Magic’s strategy on Bosh is playing off him, allowing him to shoot jumpers, but prevent him from driving. It makes sense for the Magic because Dwight Howard wouldn’t get into foul trouble. So I expect the Magic to do the same thing again, so Bosh’s jumper is key.

– Ryan Anderson is doing a good imitation of Rashard Lewis, at least with shooting 3s. He did have a good game against the Raptors last season. Anderson is a virtual clone of Troy Murphy; a PF who can shoot 3 and rebound, but not much else.

– Bargnani has to learn how to stay on the floor. He’s been in foul trouble for two straight games, fouling out in Memphis. He also fouled out in the last pre-season game. Rasho will play a lot minutes regardless, but Bargnani has to learn how to stay on the floor.

– Keys to a Raptor victory.

1) Defend the 3s. This is the trademark for the Magic. So stay with the shooters and not allowing open looks. They have too many good shooters to gamble on.

2) Rebounding. The Raptors allowed way too many offensive rebounds in the last 2 games. You can’t not give teams like the Magic free possessions. They will shoot a lot of threes, so remember long shots, long rebounds.

3) Hack a Howard. Howard is shooting a staggering 77% in the first two games, but an ugly 41% from the free throw line. So if in doubt, hack him. We probably don’t have the personnel to push him out of the paint (where he is completely ineffective), but I have no issues if the Raptors start hacking him and send him to the foul line.

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Post Game thoughts

Raptors win!!! Raptors win!!! We won’t go 0-82, at the very worst 1-81…

Anyway, it’s a great game if you are a Raptor fan, horrible one if you are Cleveland. Here are some notes:

– This is my first time using NBA League Pass Broadband watching the game. The quality is good, and I can switch to other games once there is a break. They have it for free right now till next Tues, so go check it out.

– Did anyone see Shaq bringing out a 2 by 4 and ask his teammate to spank him during the introduction? I just want to confirm this; not sure if the league pass thing is playing tricks on my eyes.

– Impressive debut by DeRozan, hit a couple of jumpers, rebound the ball well, didn’t embarrass himself on defense, has a block shot and a steal. Very solid. Lots of energy, which is what he needs to provide in the starting 5.

– The Raptors camera crew has to be the worst in the NBA. They were showing Brian Burke on TV then Colangelo, while the play is going on. This is nothing new, they have been doing this for years. They always manage to miss simple things like this. If the basketball is in play, then the camera should follow the play. I don’t need to see Bryan Colangelo looking intense. I want to see the bloody game!!!

– If you tell me that the Raptors shoot 5-16 from downtown, Calderon missing two free throws and only shooting 1 of 6, and we still win the game, I will call you crazy. But it happen, so kudos.

– The D is good for the most part, so we will see if they can keep it up.

– Is there anyone else who wish the game was over at half-time?

– This is to Cav fans: Why would Mike Brown play 2 bigs (Z and Shaq) together at the same time? I wouldn’t think they would be dumb enough to do it before the season, they tried against Boston yesterday and it didn’t work. Tried it in the 2nd quarter, failed horribly. Then when they have all the momentum in the world, they went back to it in the fourth. The Raptors went on a run that pretty much turn the game around. If there is a turning point, this is it. I hate to harp on it, they have success playing small ball, so why go away from that? Shaq and Z look horribly slow, they can’t run up and down the floor, they don’t want to come out to the perimeter. It’s bad enough to play one of them, but playing both of them at the same time? Just insanity.

– Wright proved his defensive value by drawing 3 charges. He really shouldn’t be shooting, but his defense is the reason why he is still playing in the league

– Cleveland made a strong run in the third, as expected. All good teams do this. It’s how you respond to runs that makes the difference. But they look pretty disjointed on offense right now. No ball movements, Shaq looks like he is 1000 years old. It will probably take some time to adjust, so they should be ok. We will see how they are doing in a month.

– It could be just me, but it seems like the refs were doing their part in making this a close game. Some awful calls in the 4th quarter.

– Didn’t realize Hedo has 3 block shots tonight. Good debut for Turk!

The good from the Raptors:

– Bargnani looks great on offense. Foul trouble keep him from playing more, but he looks very confident, and keep his team in the game early on when Bosh is struggling.

– We will have to monitor this. Bosh’s offseason weight training program may actually do some good. He’s in good rebounding position, and didn’t get push off. So we will have to see how he will do in future games.

– The Raptors went to the line 37 times.

– LBJ had an off game tonight, going 7-19 from the field and missing 6 free throws. An off game for Bron means a triple double. That’s how good he is.

What to work on:

– Help D rotation. The Cavs were getting wide open looks in the third, and that’s how they tied the game up.

– Work on your jumpers Jarrett Jack.

Overall great win.

I won’t be here tomorrow and Friday to do preview and post game for the Memphis game. Needless to say, the Grizzlies do have some players that can hurt the Raptors. Guys like Randolph, Gay and Mayo can drop 20 points at any time. So D up!!!

I will be going to the ACC for the next 2 home games, starting Sunday against Vince Carter and the Orlando Magic.

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First Game Preview: Toronto Raptors vs Cleveland Cavaliers

Ok, after waiting for 6 long months, the Raptor season is about to start. I am going to do the preview today, instead of tomorrow, since I probably am too busy with other things.

Cleveland likely Starting 5:

Mo Williams, PG
Anthony Parker, SG
LeBron James, SF
Anderson Varejao, PF
Shaq O’Neal, C

Note: Delonte West is not playing today against Boston, so I imagine him not being ready for tomorrow’s game. So this could be a nice way to see AP coming back as a starter for the best team in the East last season.

Raptors likely starting 5:

Jose Calderon, PG
DeMar DeRozan, SG
Hedo Turkoglu, SF
Chris Bosh, PF
Andrea Bargnani, C

Note: DeRozan will probably start, unless something goes really wrong, he will be the starting SG for quite some time. I have voiced my opinion on this many times, so I won’t make further comments.

What to watch out for:

– The Raptors’ offense struggled in the pre-season, especially shooting the 3 ball. They were the worst team in the pre-season, which is very surprising given that the team has several good 3 point shooters. Hopefully, they can shoot better in the regular season; otherwise the Raptors will be in deep trouble. The offense will win games for this team not the defense.

– Since there is a game tonight, Shaq probably won’t play a lot of minutes against the Raptors. The reason for getting Shaq is not for games played in October, but games played in May and beyond.

– Speaking of Shaq, I expect the Raps to use plenty of pick and rolls and Hedo and Jose as the main ball-handlers. You will probably see Bargnani staying around the perimeter trying to draw Shaq or Z to guard him.

– Keys to the game for the Raptors

1) Take care of the basketball. Last thing you want is to give away possessions to the best player in the game right now. Turnovers could turn to fast break opportunity and that’s something LeBron excel.

2) Don’t let other players beat you. If LeBron score 60 points, that’s fine. But held the others in check. Orlando beat Cleveland in the playoffs despite LeBron scoring 38 points per game in that series.

This game is going to be a huge challenge for the Raptors. Actually, I could see this team starting 0-3. The Raptors had started 3-0 twice before, but neither team made the play offs.

I will probably post my post game thoughts hopefully right after the game.  I have a fantasy draft on Thursday,  so I probably won’t have time.

You feel the excitment, Toronto?

A couple of weeks ago, I was listening to Prime Time Sports and Jack Armstrong was on, and they were talking about the lack of excitement in Toronto about basketball this season.

Actually, I sort of see that too. Last season, there were a lot more casual fans talking about the Raptors, and thinking the team was going to take the next step forward and Jermaine O’Neal + Chris Bosh would be the new twin towers, echoing what Sam Mitchell had said when they acquired O’Neal.

Of course we know what happened next. The team won the first 3 games and then it’s all downhill from there. Mitchell was fired after 40+ points lost in Denver, O’Neal was much less than advertised and the Raptors won a disappointing 33 games.

Now with all the moves Colangelo has made in this off-season, it seems to make no difference to the general public. I share season tickets with 3 other friends and we sell some of the games to other people. In the past couple of years, the tickets were snapped up as quickly as you can say jumanji. However, this year is quite different, as we all have difficulties selling these games. The die hard Raptor fans are still around, but the casual fans are not buying what the Ratpors are selling. And a lot fewer people are talking about Raptor basketball.

The reason?

It could be the economy is bad and people don’t have to mood to talk, much less spend. Or it could be the casual fans want to see how the Raptors will perform before hopping on the bandwagon again. After all, last season was a painful reminder that a team hyped up so much could end into a bitter disappointment.

Another reason plays a big part into this: Toronto sports scene is one depressing mess. The Blue Jays has a bad season, their best pitcher (or some say their best player) was almost traded and then they fired their general manager, the Argos is the worst team in the CFL, the FC couldn’t make the playoffs in the MLS, and the Leafs, well let’s not go there.

I don’t remember a time where all Toronto Sports team are this terrible at the same time. When the Leafs struggled in the 80s, the Jays were great, and the Argos are winning (you could argue not many people care about the CFL, but still a Toronto sports team). Then the Jays slumped but the Leafs starts to win, and made it to the semi finals multiple times in the 90s. The Raptors, meanwhile was mediocre, but they had moments where this team could go somewhere (Vince Carter team earlier in the decade and the Atlantic Division winning team a couple of years back). Right now, you can make an argument the best Toronto Sports team is a soccer team that just missed the playoffs in the MLS, a team that got wiped out when playing against a real professional team like Real Madrid and Real Madrid wasn’t really trying.

It’s quite depressing to say the least, and if you are a sports fan living in Toronto, could you really be excited about the Raptors which won 33 games last season and went 2-6 in the pre-season?

The Raptors do have an opportunity to win some new fans. They will always be the second citizen in Toronto sports scene, but right now the city needs a winning team. The Leafs haven’t won a game almost a month into the season and may not win a game for another month (and what’s worse is that they traded away their first round pick). So if the Raptors get off the a hot start in October/November, they will get the spotlight for once. Remember the Jays’ hot start in April/May, it got everyone talking including people who has no interest in baseball. The city was so starved for a winner that they didn’t really care if this is real or a mirage. When reality crashed in, and the Jays start losing, attendance nosedived, and no one cared about the Jays (I have never seen a team received so much attention earlier in the season and then nothing in the end). Anyway, a hot start would definitely get Toronto talking about basketball draw new fans.

However, this is easier said than done. As I looked at the Raptors’ schedule in Oct/Nov, it’s quite a doozy. They will play 18 games in total, 12 of those games are against team which made the playoffs last season. 2 of those games against non-playoff teams is the Phoenix Suns, which won 46 games last season. They will have a couple of long road trips against Western Conference teams, 7 games in total. They will face the 3 best teams in the East (Boston, Cleveland, Orlando) 4 times, including the home opener. If the Raptors come out of Nov with a .500 record, they should count their blessing and be very happy.

However, a .500 record is not going to attract new fans. Casual fans don’t care about schedules and what not. They just want to see a winning team. They desperately want to latch on to a sports team that can give them some hope and joy. And even though it’s almost mission impossible for the Raptors to have a winning record in the first month, it’s still a rare opportunity for the basketball to rise into the spotlight. It’s something that this franchise never have in the 15 years of existence and I hope they can take advantage.

What have I learned in the preseason

I learned that:

– The only 6th man of the year award Marco Belinelli has a chance of winning will be in the WNBA. Ok, maybe the NBDL. Anyway, he hasn’t impressed anyone so far. He is way too trigger happy and streaky to be effective and his defense isn’t very good.

– DeMarr DeRozan can be an effective NBA player on offense this season. He isn’t afraid to take contact and go to the free throw line and he hit his free throws, which is something he didn’t do well in college. If he can bulk up, be more selective with his shot and pass the ball once in a while, he has an outside shot of being in the NBA first rookie team. However…

– DeMarr DeRozan will struggle badly on defense. That really isn’t a surprise since most rookies struggle on D. But with the Raps D being what it is, I think DeRozan would be better suited in the 2nd unit.

– The D still sucks. I don’t mind the ‘pack the paint’ mentality, but the rotation is very slow, we are giving teams way too many open jumpers. The team’s help D is almost non existent. What makes Boston such a great defensive team is their help defense, they are so quick getting to the 3 point line that the opposing team has no chance of getting an open look. If we are going to double every time someone drives to the paint, we better have that rotation set.

– I am worried about our starting unit. They have not looked good. Maybe it’s because everyone is going at half speed, or maybe some of them are working back in shape. But I am a little disappointed right now.

– This is not new, but maybe Bosh and Bargnani isn’t really compatible to each other. Bosh gain some weight but he is not going to be Dwight Howard anytime soon. He will still get push around by bigger players and Bargnani is softer than a box of kleenex. Both guys would be better suited to playing beside someone who is stronger and better on defense. Yes they are good on offense, but that’s the easy part. It’s the defense that I am worried about. Neither of them are great help defenders, Bosh is better than Bargnani in that regard. Anyhow, if the Raps don’t make it past the first round of the playoffs this year, it maybe time to breakup the tandem.

Central Division Prediction

Now that I have a little time, I will finish the predictions, here is the Central Division.

Cleveland Cavaliers.
Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 4th
Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 3rd
09-10 Outlook: The fourth best offense last season is getting a huge upgrade this season with Shaq. The trade was really a no brainer for the Cavs, Ben Wallace was awful on offense and nowhere near as dominant on defense. Shaq will give them more scoring and more importantly someone who can push Dwight Howard out of the paint. Parker and Moon will play off the bench, which should be the role for both last season. Then there is always LeBron, the best player in the league right now, and has a chance to be the best player ever played the game.
09-10 Record: 68-14. They won 66 with Ben Wallace last season, so I think they will be even better this season.

Chicago Bulls.
Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 15th
Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 18th
09-10 Outlook: Losing Ben Gordon isn’t going to hurt as much. John Salmons will replace him as the starting SG, they have Derek Rose who can/will score more, Hinrich is still in the team and fill in if needed, plus they signed Jannero Pargo who can be the gunslinger off the bench. If there is an issue, it’s their front court depth. Noah/Thomas/Miller will be their big man rotation, and Deng will play some PF in small ball situation, but it’s still very thin. Plus Deng will miss his usual 20 games or so with some sort of injury.
09-10 Record: 37-45, 9th in the East. They could finish higher, it depends on how much improvement Rose can show. He is a future all-star, the question is if it happens this season or next season.

Detroit Pistons.
Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 21st
Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 16th
09-10 Outlook: With all the cap room, that’s all they are getting? I am a little underwhelm by the Pistons here. They lose a lot of defense and trade in for some younger players who can score but not exactly solid defenders. If this fails, will Dumars fire another coach? Look for the Piston GM trying to trade Prince or Hamilton to further rebuild their lineup. Right now, they have good players at SG, SF, PF, but nothing in PG (I don’t consider Stuckey as a good PG) and C. In the past, the Pistons have 5 solid starters in their lineup, and 1 or 2 of them would make the all-star team. I don’t see anyone here in this lineup going to Dallas for the all-star game.
09-10 Record:36-46 10th in the East.

Indiana Pacers.
Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 18th
Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 19th
09-10 Outlook: I wrote that the Pacers would have made playoffs if they can stay healthy last season. I thought they had a team which could win 45 games. I can’t say the same thing about the Pacers this season, however. The problem is that the players they brought in are worse than the ones they lost in the off-season. Signing Dahtay Jones is probably the worst move in the off-season. He has a reputation of being a good defender, but there is no statistic to support that. Worse, he is useless on offense. Solomon Jones is an undersized PF who had a career year last season, but he’s still a 15 minute role player at best. The Thunder would love to give away Earl Watson but find no takers, and the Pacers ask him to be the backup PG??? The only way they can make the playoffs is to have TJ Ford playing up to his potential and be a premiere PG. Sounds easy, but not sure if Ford has the maturity or be healthy enough for that.
09-10 Record: 33-49, 11th in the East

Milwaukee Bucks
Offensive Efficiency Ranking: 23rd
Defensive Efficiency Ranking: 15th
09-10 Outlook: When a new GM comes in, he usually wants to make a splash. Either by trading the entire roster for rebuilding, or trade for an expensive player in hopes for a playoff spot. John Hammonds chose the latter option last season, and they almost made the playoffs but injuries to Redd and Bogut pretty much killed any chances the Bucks have. But now, they lose Sessions, Charlie V, and Richard Jefferson; that’s 3 of the 5 starters from last season. They have Brandon Jennings, Carlos Delfino and Kurt Thomas taking over; that’s a pretty big downgrade. Skiiles will make this team play defense but they will battle with the Nets for the worst offense in the league.
09-10 Record: 28-54.

Atlantic Division: Preview

Just a quick preview and prediction for the upcoming season. This will be short and sweet. Starting with the Atlantic Division:

1. Boston Celtics.
Offensive Efficiency (Rank): 6th
Defensive Efficiency (Rank): 2nd
2009-2010 outlook: The Celtics won 62 games last season despite missing Garnett for more than 20+ games. I could be the only one that doesn’t like the outlook for them this season. There are two reasons. 1) This is an old team, Garnett is 33 but log a lot of minutes in his career, Allen is 34 and had knee issues before, Pierce is 32; he is not exactly iron man either, and he takes a lot of punishment by driving to the basket all these years. All three of them have showed sign of slippage last season. Adding Sheed doesn’t help in that department. 2) Injuries. Who will backup Allen/Pierce if either one is injured? Tony Allen? Marquis Daniels? Bill Walker? I think you will see Rondo taking a bigger role on offense, which is a pretty good idea. Anyway, as long as Thibodeau is around, they will be a top 5 team on defense. But I don’t see them winning 60 games.
09-10 record: 50-32, 3rd in the East. This is a real low number, and I wouldn’t be surprise seeing them winning 55 games, but that’s as far as I could go. Donny Walsh once said that it’s better to trade a player a year early, then a year too late. This could apply to teams too. If this group can’t win a championship this year, they may want to consider blowing this thing up.

Toronto Raptors.
Offensive Efficiency (rank): 22nd
Defensive Efficiency (rank); 22nd
2009-2010 outlook: You got to give Bryan Colangelo credit for making so many changes within an off-sesaon. As a result, the team is deeper, the offense should be better. The defense is a question mark, so far they have shown they are more active in the pre-season games, but that could be fool’s gold. If Bosh can have a big year, then the team could win 50 games.
09-10 record: 45-37, 5th in the East. If Bosh has a big year and the Raptors win 45 games or less, then it’s not good news for a Raptor fan.

Philadelphia 76ers.
Offensive Efficiency (Rank): 19th
Defensive Efficiency (Rank): 14th
2009-2010 Outlook: Hiring Eddie Jordan as a coach should help the 76ers half court offense. Jordan’s problem is usually on the defensive side of things, and the 76ers are fine in that regard. They do have some young talent in Thaddeus Young, Speights, Jrue Holiday and Lou Williams. You will probably see Iggy playing PG while Williams act as a SG on offense. Kapono was brought in to help shore up their perimeter scoring and if Jordan can get Kapono shoot 50% of his shots at the 3 point line then he should be the coach of the year (ok, maybe not).
09-10 Record: 41-41, 7th in the East. Ok, it’s the same record as last season. While losing Miller is a big deal, they do have enough youth to offset that. Add to the fact that they will get Elton Brand back, while Brand isn’t the player he used to be, he can still be an above average player. As long as he doesn’t hog the ball, the offense should be ok.

New York Knicks.
Offensive Efficiency (Rank): 17th
Defensive Efficiency (Rank): 23rd
2009-2010 Outlook: It’s cleared the # 1 goal for the Knicks this season is to trade Eddy Curry. Wins and losses shouldn’t matter as much as to create more cap room in the 2010 offseason. Curry will get chances to show his stuff, and the Knicks are hoping that some other team is so impressed that they will trade for him. It only takes one, folks. The Knicks really didn’t make a lot of changes. Jordan Hill is replacing Chris Wilcox, David Lee and Nate Robinson are back for a one year contract and Galinari will finally get a chance to play. At least they have a direction and a goal, which is more than what you can say about the Knicks in the Isiah Thomas era.
09-10 Record: 30-52, 12th in the East.

New Jersey Nets.
Offensive Efficiency (Rank): 16th
Defensive Efficiency (Rank): 24th
2009-2010 Outlook: Let’s start with the positive. Devin Harris can score and he will given lots of chances to do so this season, and Brook Lopez has potential to be an all-star (especially in the East) and Courtney Lee can become a glue guy who can play D and knock down open jumpers. That’s pretty much it for the good stuff. The Nets were ranked 16th on offense last season, and that’s with Vince Carter around. Without him, the offense could be ugly. Yes, we will see plenty of Chairman Yi this season.
09-10 outlook: 26-56, 14th in the East
09-10 Record:

The throw in

In my last post, I said that there are 3 players that I would pay attention to during the pre-season, but there is another player that sort of caught my eyes, in a good way.

Sonny Weems was a thrown-in for the Delfino trade. I didn’t think he would stick around, the Raptors wouldn’t take a huge salary hit if they cut Weems and sign a veteran player. Instead, he is here and taking advantage of playing time because of Wright’s injury.

I search the web and try to find out more about Weems. So here are some scouting report from the draft. Starting with NBA.com:

Strengths: Elite athlete who is continuing to refine his basketball knowledge and skills. Is quick to the basket and has the ability to catch fire from the perimeter.

From SI:

Weems probably would be fortunate to get selected in the second round. Very agile and can be explosive going to the basket, but may be at his best coming off screens as a mid-range jump shooter. He gambles defensively to make steals, but otherwise is fairly poor at that end of the floor – a trait which will surely hurt his stock in scouts’ eyes. Has a good frame for a backcourt player and is a reliable free-throw shooter, having hit 80.3 percent as a senior, but does not get to the foul line often enough.

NBAdraft.net:

Strengths: An intriguing prospect with developing skills … A ridiculous run/jump athlete who thrives in the open floor, up tempo game … High riser who regularly converts on highlight dunks … Shows nice touch on his shot … Slashes to the basket well with long arms and good body control … Playing alongside a good point guard really enhances his strengths as he is very good at running back door and converting ally oops … A solid free throw shooter (80%) … Has really improved as a three point shooter … Shows a great deal of potential as his skills are steadily catching up to his athleticism … Quick hands and feet make him a quality on ball defender … Solid defender who gathers a good deal of steals with his long arms and anticipation … Explosive leaper who jumps better off two feet …

Weaknesses: Though he’s already 21, still has a low skill level. His court sense and overall feel for the game have room for improvement … Lacks great ball handling and passing ability … Not great at creating offense for himself off the dribble … Must improve as a ball handler to gain better scoring ability … Turns the ball over too often … Jump shot is improving but still a weakness … Sometimes settles too much for the outside shot instead of driving to the basket and using his athleticism to finish at the rim … Should go to the line more often than he does, looking to draw contact … A better spot up shooter than off the dribble, but showing some improvement … Has a muscular frame but an added 5-10 pounds of muscle would help him …

In the pre-season games I have watched, Weems is showing that he can be a rotation player in the NBA. He has good size, very good athlete and not a bad defender (while it’s never good idea to judge defense in an exhibition game, Weems does have the tools to succeed in this area). Obviously, he has a few things he needs to work on; his jumper is a little shaky and he is not a very good rebounder despite his jumping ability and size. His D league stats shows that he scored 20+ points per game, but he doesn’t shoot a good percentage from 3 point line and he doesn’t get to the FT line. It seems like he is still learning the game, as his number of steals and block shots are relatively low for a athlete like Weems. In a way, he reminds me of Joey Graham. Great physique and athlete but still trying to apply them to a basketball game. Right now Weems will be fighting for a job with Antoine Wright as the main backup SF; Wright does have a lot more experience but he’s pretty horrible on offense and I don’t think it’s possible that Weems is worse than Wright in that department. With Wright coming back this week and Weems a little bang up, maybe it’s time for Wright to show bleongs in the rotation.

Players to pay attention to during pre-season

Pre-season games can be a drag for fans. Winning and losing matters very little, the veteran players aren’t trying 100%, while coaches usually experiment with their lineups and rotations. So here are 3 players I will pay close attention in this period:

1) Marco Belinelli.
I wonder what happen to Belinelli in Golden States, Don Nelson was raving about him after his first summer league game, and then Belinelli struggled, and never played again. Beli can shoot, and has decent handles, so there is some potential there. While I don’t think he is a 6th man candidate, I think he can contribute. In the Pre-season, I would like to see if he can create consistently for himself and his teammates. Also, I would like to see his instinct on defense, this will dictate how much playing time he is going to get.

2) Amir Johnson

Amir Johnson can be a game changer, he is athletic and still very young. He has already shown he can rebound and block shots in this league. If he can stop fouling that much, he can contribute quite a bit for the Raptors. I have heard some good things coming from training camp regarding Amir. What I am looking for in the pre-season is that if he has any offensive game, and if he can stay out of foul trouble. If Amir can do that with replacement refs, then this could be a good season for Amir and the Raptors.

3) DeMar DeRozan

DeMar DeRozan is only 20 years old, so I am not going to expect much from him. The organization wants him to start for this team, and I am not sold on that idea. If he can earn it, that’s fine, but giving a guy with limited experience a starting spot may be counter-productive. In the pre-season, I don’t care about his scoring, since he would probably be the 5th option if he is in the starting lineup. I want to see the ‘little things’. Can he rebound, play defense, hustle and generally use his awesome athletic ability and translate it to basketball skills? Joey Graham is a guy who has good athletic ability but can never translate it on to the basketball court. DeRozan is much younger, so he may have a chance to turn into a much better player; it really depends if he has the basketball IQ and the work ethic.

Pre-season stats may not mean anything, but if a young player does very badly during the pre-sesaon, he probably won’t play much in the regular season. Hopefully, these 3 players understand that and they will play hard and prove that they belong in the NBA.

Reality check?!

The one constant about training camp is that everybody is optimistic and hopeful about the upcoming season. After all, no one has lost any games yet and in theory every team has about 1 in 30 chances of winning a championship. So you will hear players and coaches saying hopeful things, and sometimes they will even set high goals to achieve.

It’s nice to set goals, but you also have to be realistic about it. You don’t hear the Minnesota Timberwolves setting a goal for winning a championship this season because that would not be realistic. Raptor’s coach Jay Triano said something the other day that kind of shocks me:

“We were 21st in team defence last year but we want to be in the top six this year,” he said. “It’s an extremely high goal for us, but this is what we have to aim for.”

What???

According to Knickerblogger stat sites, the Raptors ranked 22nd in defense last season, a pretty dreadful ranking to say the least. And the 6th best defense last season belongs to the NBA champs, the Lakers. The Raptors allowed 110 points per 100 possessions and the Lakers 104.7 points per 100 possessions.

Can teams improve that much on defense in one off-season? In theory, yes. The Milwaukee Bucks ranked 30th in the league on defense in 2008 and the Bucks ranked 15th in 2009. They cut about 5 points per 100 possessions. The Bobcats ranked 20th on defense in 2008 and 7th in 2009. And don’t forget about the Boston Celtics, in 2007 they ranked 18th on defense and ranked 1st in 2008 on route to winning a championship.

How did they do it? The Bucks hired a defensive minded coach, Scott Skiles who has a history of getting his players playing defense; also they have Luc Mbah a Moute, one of the most underrated defender in the league guarding SG/SF even PF at times. Basically, Skiles played a lot of guys who can play defense but can’t score to save their lives. For example, Charlie Bell averaged 25+ minutes per game and while their best scorer and bad defender Charlie Villlanueva averaged only 2 minutes more.

Similar story in Charlotte. They hired Larry Brown last season. Brown is a great coach especially on defense (just look at his resume). But the Bobcats also made a lot of moves; they traded their best player on offense (also a horrible defender) Jason Richardson for Boris Diaw and Raja Bell. Both Bell and Diaw are very good defenders. Also they made a trade for Desagana Diop, who is one of the best post defender in the league and also one of the worst player in the league on offense. So the trade off? The Bobcats ranked 27th on offense because they are playing guys like Diaw, Bell and to a lesser extent Diop minutes.

We really don’t have to talk about Boston on how they improve that much now, do we?

So what do the Raptors have to do to have the 6th best defense in the league?

1) They will have to play their best defenders Jarrett Jack, Antoine Wright, Reggie Evans, Rasho Nesterovic for a lot of minutes while limiting the bad defenders (Calderon, Bargnani) to fewer minutes.
2) The players has to be extremely disipline, tough and trust one another.
3) The team will have to sacrifice certain things like offensive rebounds so that they will always have 4 men running back to defend. Limiting opponent’s fast break oppurtunities.
4) Slow the pace down (similar to point 3)

Obviously by doing this, there are major trade-offs. 1) You don’t want to see a lineup of Jack, Wright, Evans and Rasho, it will be brick city. Jack and Rasho can score a bit, but Wright and Evans are completely useless on offense. If Wright plays more than 20 minutes per game, then I may have to gouge my eyes out. 2) The team will be the one of the most boring team in the league, like watching a Kevin O’Neil or a Mike Fratello team. There will be lots of 70-64 games. 3) The offense will suffer, not only because of playing guys like Wright a tonne of minutes, but the slow pace doesn’t allow a lot of easy baskets.

Even if they do all that, the defense still may not ranked top 6 in the league. We really don’t have an elite defender; Wright and Jack are good defenders, but they are not great. Evans and Rasho can’t defend against quicker players.

The Raptors defense has to improve in order for them to make the playoffs, no question about it, but in order to have a balance offense + defense, top 6 seems very unlikely. Let’s aim for 12-15 spots, that’s more of a realistic proposition.