Bosh Twittergate

By now most of Raptor fans have probably heard that Chris Bosh asked fans on Twitter on where he should go next year.  I will post the exact twitter post:

Been wanting to ask. Where should I go next season and why? 3:28 PM Apr 30th via Twitterrific

Then a couple of minutes later:

Ok… Let me rephrase the question. Should I stay or should I go?

I have been to Raptor fan boards, and these fans trying to dissect word by word exactly what it means.  It’s sort of like the DaVinci Code,  funny but pretty sad at times.   A lot of people think this is an indication of him leaving, even though he did ask should he stay or not.

For me, I don’t think this changes anything, most of us expects him to leave and he really didn’t say he is leaving for sure.  So if the Raptors made a move before July 1st or win the draft lottery, he may want to come back.  But no one knows for sure.
There are three likely outcome to the Bosh scenario, and here is my take and estimate on how likely each scenario would happen:

1) Bosh re-signed with the Raptors (15%): A little high by some.  I do think that Bosh genuinely likes the city and loves being a #1 option on offense.   Indeed with Bosh being the #1 option, the Raptors were top 5 on offense last season.  What we need to do is have someone who can help him on defense.  You look at the top players today, the coaches would not have their top player guarding the opposition top player.  Kobe has Ron Artest, LeBron has Anthony Parker, Durant has Sefolosha.  Bosh has Bargnani, who isn’t an ace defender in anyone’s imagination.  If Bryan Colangelo can somehow engineer a move to add another piece before the free-agency period, maybe Bosh would stay around.

2) Bosh leaving via sign-and-trade (70%): Most likely scenario.  Both Bosh and Colangelo has said that they will work together on a new contract.  Bosh is going to get a max contract, so it will silly for him to leave 30 million off the table.  If Bosh decides to leave, it only makes sense for Colangelo to try to get something in return.  Some sign-and-trades actually do work: Eddie Jones going to Miami for PJ Brown and Jamaal Mashburn to Charlotte; Grant Hill going to Orlando for Ben Wallace and Chucky Atkins to Detroit; even Carlos Delfino going to Milwaukee for Amir Johnson and Sonny Weems to Toronto, it works out fine/better for the other team.  So it’s possible to get something decent in return.  What probably will happen is around July 1, Bosh will come up with a list of teams he is willing to go to and have Colangelo engineer a sign-and-trade.

3) Bosh leaving outright (15%): While Bosh and Colangelo did say they will work together, I could see a scenario where Bosh just leaves without a max contract.  Let’s say that Bosh decides to leave and Colangelo tries to look for sign and trade options and this is dragging for a long time.   Meanwhile, teams with capspace have already signed all their free agents (ie: Miami signed Boozer, Chicago gets Amare, NY gets Joe Johnson and David Lee), and the remaining teams with cap room has either no interest in signing Bosh or Bosh have no interest in going there (could you imagine Bosh in a Net uniform?)  I could see Bosh being impatient and signed with a team with capspace for less money.  Not a very likely scenario, since Colangelo usually do things pretty quickly, but still possible.

No matter what Bosh say between now and July 1st, the real story won’t come out probably after that.  It’s very unlikely for Bosh to say definitely where or if he is going or staying.  Actually no free agent has said that (it would ruin their market value).  It will happen soon enough and no matter what happens, I can’t wait.

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